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Using the desk

Conviction Grades Explained: How We Size Confidence on Every EUR/USD Call

Most services that claim to run the best trading signals publish every call with the same implied confidence: take it or don't. That flattens a real difference: a setup where the Cloud and Fibonacci levels line up cleanly is not the same bet as one where the read is thinner. Ichimuhan publishes that difference directly, as a conviction grade from 1 to 5 on every single position.

A laptop screen displaying performance analytics graphs and data charts

What the grade is measuring

Conviction isn't a gut feeling attached after the fact. It reflects how clean the read is between the two methods the desk uses on every setup: how decisively the Ichimoku Cloud has set direction, and how cleanly the Fibonacci retracement on the last completed swing lines up an entry, target, and stop. When both agree strongly, the grade is high. When the Cloud is thin, twisting, or the swing used for the Fibonacci levels is ambiguous, the grade is lower: the desk is telling you its own confidence, not just giving you a number to fill a field.

From grade to suggested risk

Every conviction grade maps to a suggested risk percentage, published alongside it. A higher grade carries a higher suggested risk; a lower grade carries a lower one. That's the entire mechanism:

  • Grade 5: the cleanest reads, where Cloud direction and Fibonacci levels agree with the least ambiguity. Suggested risk is at its highest.
  • Grade 3: a workable setup with some ambiguity in one part of the read. Suggested risk sits in the middle.
  • Grade 1: a marginal setup the desk is still willing to publish, but with the lowest suggested risk of the scale.

What the desk never does is state a lot size or a dollar figure. The suggested risk is a percentage, and turning that into an actual position size is left entirely to you, because only you know your account and your own tolerance for drawdown.

Why publish the grade instead of just the trade

A plan with no conviction grade asks you to trust every call equally, which is dishonest: no method produces equally strong signals every time. Publishing the grade in the open, on every position without exception, is what lets you actually read a trade plan properly instead of treating every entry, target, and stop as carrying the same weight of confidence behind it.

Every position carries a conviction grade and a fixed risk to reward, so the sizing is yours to decide.

The grade is also part of why the full record, including every loss the desk has taken, is worth reading closely: a pattern of low-conviction setups losing more often than high-conviction ones is exactly what a working grading system should look like.

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